ILRI Economist Dr Mohammad A. Jabbar presented his paper ‘Outlook for meat markets to 2020: Global and Southeast Asia regional perspectives’ at the Third Vietnamese Agricultural Outlook Conference in late March. The paper considers the global beef, pork and poultry trade with particular interest in the South-East Asian region and Vietnam. Further, the paper offers projection for the meat trade in the 2009 and beyond.
Outlook for pork, poultry and beef markets are examined at global level and also for selected Southeast Asian countries. Data are derived from a number simulation forecasting models. The 2007-2008 price hikes for some commodities have significantly changed some of the earlier projections. It is projected that demand for meat will continue to grow especially ion the emerging developing countries and prices will remain at a high level, though at a lower level than the recent hikes. Most increased consumption will come from increased domestic production but trade volume will also increase significantly. Export market will remain limited to a few countries but market share of some exporters will change, the most important change is the significantly increased export share of Brazil and a sizable reduction of some of the traditional exporters like USA and EU. In case of import also there will be significant changes, the main feature is increase in the number importers due to small but steady increase in the import volume in a number emerging countries. In Southeast Asia, production in all the countries will increase in response to rapidly increasing demand but net trade will also increase in a number of countries. In Vietnam, the projected net trade from the global and regional simulation models are much smaller then the one projected by the government.
Several policy issues need to be addressed for development of the livestock sector in Vietnam. With respect to the export expansion strategy of the government, some of the main questions that need to be carefully analyzed and addressed are related to the equity (both inter-regional and inter-farm size), efficiency and environmental consequences of industrialization, geographic concentration and zoning of production, the mechanism for ensuring food quality, safety standards, and the implications of high feed prices on organization, efficiency of production for domestic as well as export market.